BN hilang kerusi jika bersama PAS di Melaka

UMNO berkemungkinan hilang banyak kerusi jika ia bekerjasama dengan PAS pada pilihanraya negeri akan datang, berbanding dengan mengekalkan hubungan dengan Pakatan Harapan, kata penganalisa politik.
Syaza Shukri daripada Universiti Islam Antarabangsa berkata Barisan Nasional berpeluang mengekalkan kerajaan negeri tetapi sebarang kerjasama dengan PAS akan menyebabkan Umno kehilangan beberapa kerusi yang disandangnya sekarang.
Beliau turut berkata pengaruh PAS yang kecil di Melaka tidak memungkinkan pakatan BN menang besar.

“PAS bukan kuasa politik besar di Melaka. Walaupun Umno mampu mendapatkan sokongan ahli PAS, ia tidaklah sebesar mana. Umno sendiri akan terpaksa menyerahkan beberapa kerusinya untuk PAS bertanding,” katanya kepada FMT.

Mazlan Ali daripada Universiti Teknologi Malaysia pula berkata walaupun pakatan sedemikian dapat menarik sokongan di kawasan Melayu, BN akan ditolak di kawasan pengundi majoriti Cina.

Beliau berkata kerjasama sedemikian bakal menjerumuskan polarisasi kaum di negeri Melaka apabila kawasan bandar dan luar bandar terpisah.

Berdasarkan data pilihanraya 2018, kebanyakan daripada 28 kerusi Dewan Undangan Negeri Melaka adalah majoriti Melayu walaupun kurang separuh mempunyai penguasaan lebih 70 peratus bangsa berkenaan.

Sementara itu, undi bukan-Melayu menguasai keputusan beberapa kawasan, terutamanya di lima DUN.

Rabu lalu, Ketua Pemuda Umno Datuk Dr Akmal Saleh mencadangkan agar Umno bekerjasama dengan PAS pada PRN akan datang dengan alasan perpecahan Melayu sudah menjejaskan penguasaan mereka dalam banyak sektor.

Akmal juga menolak anggapan bahawa kerjasama Umno-PAS akan meminggirkan kaum bukan-Melayu dengan berkata BN tetap memelihara kepentingan mereka.

Kedua-dua penganalisa politik itu mengingatkan bahawa kerjasama dengan PAS boleh merosakkan kedudukan BN di mata bukan-Melayu yang selama ini sudah sebati dan selesa dengan kerjasaa BN-PH.

“Umno sudah pun berada dalam kedudukan selesa di kawasan Melayu. BN akan terpaksa mengenepikan bukan-Melayu jika bekerjasama dengan PAS yang ternyata bersifat demikian sekarang,” kata Syaza.

Dalam pada itu, Mazlan berpendapat cubaan bekerjasama dengan PAS di PRN Melaka akan menjejaskan hubungan Umno dengan PH dan berkemungkinan besar tidak dapat lagi bekerjasama pada masa depan.
“Ada kemungkinan PH akan memutuskan untuk bertanding solo di semua kerusi Parlimen (pada PRU16) dan kerusi DUN, bukan sahaja di Melaka malah seluruh negara,” katanya.

Mereka menolak alasan Akmal bahawa peraduan Melayu akan menjadi faktor penentu di Melaka, dengan berkata sentimen seperti itu tidak berapa dominan jika komposisi kaum negeri itu diambil kira.

“Saya percaya ia masih bergantung kepada isu ‘bread and butter’, soal kelangsung hidup serta perkhidmatan yang disediakan oleh penyandang sekarang,” kata Syaza.

BN memenangi 21 daripada 28 kerusi DUN pada PRN lalu manakala PH menang lima dan PN dua.

ADUN Rembia Jailani Khamis (dulunya Umno) menyertai pembangkang selepas menyertai PAS pada 2023. PAS gagal memenangi sebarang kerusi pada PRN 2021. Bagaimanapun, ia menang dua kerusi Parlimen pada PRU 2022 di Jasin dan Tangga Batu.

Penggal Dewan Undangan Negeri Melaka selama lima tahun akan berakhir Disember ini. Pilihanraya negeri mesti diadakan dalam tempoh 60 hari.

Umno-PAS may lose many seats in Melaka

UMNO/BN risks losing more than it stands to gain from working with PAS in the coming Melaka state election, compared to maintaining its existing alliance with Pakatan Harapan, say analysts.

Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia said Barisan Nasional has the benefit of incumbency as it currently leads the Melaka government, but partnering with PAS could compel Umno to surrender several seats under the pact.

She also said PAS’s weak footing in Melaka offers Umno little prospect of electoral gains.

“PAS is not a major force in Melaka. Even if Umno could get votes from PAS supporters, it wouldn’t be that much. If anything, Umno would have to give up seats for PAS to contest,” she told FMT.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali said that while the pact could consolidate Malay support in constituencies where the community dominates, BN would likely face rejection in mixed and Chinese-majority seats.

He added that such a pact could deepen ethnic polarisation in the state and potentially put off more urban Malays in Melaka.

Based on 2018 election data, most of the 28 state seats in Melaka are Malay-majority, though fewer than half make up a large majority of 70% or higher.

Meanwhile, non-Malay voters make up a significant share of the electorate in a number of seats, and form the majority in five constituencies.

On Wednesday, Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh called for his party to work with PAS in the next Melaka polls, saying Malay political divisions had weakened the community’s influence even in areas where the demographic formed the majority.

Akmal also rejected concerns that an Umno-PAS alliance would sideline non-Malays, saying the broader BN framework would remain intact to look after the interests of the community.

Both analysts warned that an alliance with PAS would undermine BN’s multiracial positioning and cost the coalition the support of non-Malay voters, which has been enhanced by its existing alliance with PH.

“Umno already has a good chunk of the Malay seats. BN would risk further alienating non-Malays (by cooperating) with PAS, so I don’t see the gain,” said Syaza.

On the other hand, Mazlan warned that testing out a PAS pact in Melaka could strain Umno’s already tense ties with PH, and lead to clashes in future elections.

“There is a possibility that PH will decide to go solo in contesting for all parliamentary and state assembly seats, not only in Melaka but all across the country,” he said.

Syaza and Mazlan also dismissed Akmal’s argument that “Malay unity” would be the deciding factor in the Melaka polls, saying such sentiments were much less dominant there due to the state’s multiracial composition.

“I believe it still hinges on bread and butter grievances, (the quality of) candidates nominated and the services of incumbent assemblymen,” said Syaza.

Mazlan said the idea of Malay unification would only be a key factor in areas where Malay voters dominated the electoral roll.

BN won 21 of the 28 seats up for grabs in the 2021 Melaka polls, while PH won five and PN took two through Bersatu.

Rembia assemblyman Jailani Khamis, formerly of Umno, moved to the opposition bloc after joining PAS in 2023, before the state assembly’s anti-hopping law came into force.

PAS failed to win a single seat in the 2021 state election. However, the Islamic party won two parliamentary seats in Melaka during the 2022 general election, wresting the former Umno strongholds of Jasin and Tangga Batu.

The five-year term of the Melaka legislative assembly will end in December, after which a state election must be held within 60 days.

 

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