Haluan kanan sukar bantu Umno-BN – analisis

LANGKAH Umno dan Barisan Nasional (BN) untuk bergerak lebih ke kanan dijangka tidak membawa pulangan politik diharapkan, menurut penganalisis, yang memberi amaran pendekatan itu boleh menyebabkan gabungan berkenaan kehilangan sokongan rakan bukan Melayu serta melemahkan kedudukannya di kerusi bandar.

Hisommudin Bakar dari Ilham Centre berkata langkah sedemikian dilihat lebih tertumpu kepada usaha mengukuhkan kedudukan Umno di kawasan majoriti Melayu dan bukannya mencerminkan strategi BN secara keseluruhan.

“Umno berkemungkinan cuba mencabar dominasi Perikatan Nasional (PN) dengan membawa naratif yang hampir sama dan lebih cenderung ke kanan, bagi menarik semula sebahagian pengundi Melayu yang dahulu menjadi asas sokongan tradisinya,” katanya kepada FMT.

Namun, Azmil Tayeb dari Universiti Sains Malaysia berkata Umno tidak mampu mengalahkan PN dalam gelanggang politik identiti Melayu-Islam.

“Mereka yang percaya kepada ketuanan Melayu-Islam tetap akan menyokong PN, yang dilihat lebih tulen dalam membawa agenda itu.

“Pada masa sama, Umno berisiko menjauhkan rakan bukan Melayunya jika terus bergerak lebih ke kanan,” katanya.

Mereka mengulas kenyataan bekas menteri Khairy Jamaluddin dalam program The Breakfast Grille di BFM, yang berkata masih ada ruang untuk ‘skrip politik lama’ yang dibawa Ketua Pemuda Umno Dr Akmal Saleh, walaupun parti itu sedang berusaha memodenkan diri.

Khairy berkata Presiden Umno Zahid Hamidi mungkin membiarkan gaya politik kontroversi Akmal kerana wujud ‘ancaman nyata dan mendesak’ dari sebelah kanan politik, iaitu PN.

Namun, beliau menjangkakan Umno akhirnya akan kembali kepada pendirian nasionalis Melayu yang lebih sederhana, sambil bekerjasama dengan MCA dan MIC.

Azmil bagaimanapun menolak gambaran pendekatan itu benar-benar bersifat pertengahan dan menekankan ia menutup realiti struktur sebenar dalam model gabungan BN.

“Maksudnya, orang Melayu akan sentiasa berada di kedudukan teratas, manakala hak bukan Melayu perlu dilihat melalui kerangka itu.

“Inilah formula BN selama beberapa dekad untuk mengekalkan kestabilan,” katanya.

Umno tunjang BN yang memberi tumpuan kepada kepentingan Melayu-Islam, sambil berkongsi kuasa dengan MCA dan MIC.

Pernah menjadi kuasa dominan dalam politik Malaysia, kekuatan Umno di Parlimen merosot dengan ketara, daripada 102 kerusi pada 2004 kepada hanya 27 kerusi pada 2022.

PAS pula meningkatkan jumlah kerusinya daripada 14 pada 2018 kepada 43 pada 2022.

Hisommudin berkata imej lama Umno sebagai pembela agama, bangsa dan tanah air pernah membantu parti itu mengekalkan sokongan Melayu, tetapi pendekatan itu sahaja kini tidak lagi mencukupi.

Katanya, pengundi muda turut dipengaruhi isu pekerjaan, kos sara hidup dan jaminan ekonomi.

“PN mendapat tarikan besar dalam kalangan pengundi muda bukan semata-mata kerana politik identiti, tetapi kerana mereka berjaya membawa mesej mereka dengan cara yang lebih agresif, menyentuh emosi dan berkesan secara digital,” katanya.

“Oleh itu, Pemuda Umno tidak seharusnya sekadar meniru naratif lama, sebaliknya perlu membina semula naratif politik yang lebih segar dan bercakap secara langsung kepada aspirasi serta kekecewaan anak muda Melayu hari ini.”

SHIFTING further to the right is unlikely to pay off for Umno and Barisan Nasional, analysts say, warning that it could cost the coalition both its non-Malay partners and its footing in urban seats.

Hisommudin Bakar of Ilham Centre said such a move appears more focused on strengthening Umno’s position in Malay-majority seats than reflecting a broader BN strategy.

“Umno is likely attempting to challenge PN’s dominance by offering a similar right-leaning narrative in order to reclaim segments of the Malay electorate that once formed its traditional support base,” he told FMT, referring to Perikatan Nasional.

But Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia said Umno cannot beat PN at its own game on Malay-Muslim identity politics.

“Those who believe in Malay-Islamic supremacy would still support PN, which is seen as more genuine. At the same time, Umno risks alienating its non-Malay partners by shifting further to the right,” he said.

They were responding to comments by former minister Khairy Jamaluddin, who said on BFM’s The Breakfast Grille that there is still room for the “old political script” championed by Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh, even as the party seeks to modernise.

Khairy said Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi may be tolerating Akmal’s controversial politics because of the “clear and present danger on the (political) right” posed by PN, but expects the party to return to a centrist Malay nationalist stance working with MCA and MIC.

Azmil rejected the centrist framing, arguing that it obscures the structural reality of the BN coalition model.

“It means the Malays will always be at the top, and the rights of non-Malays need to be seen through this lens. This has been the BN formula for decades to maintain stability,” he said.

Umno serves as the BN lynchpin that focuses on Malay-Muslim interests while sharing power with MCA and MIC.

Once the dominant force in Malaysian politics, Umno’s parliamentary strength has fallen sharply, from 102 seats in 2004 to just 27 in 2022.

PAS, meanwhile, increased its representation from 14 seats in 2018 to 44 seats in 2022.

Hisommudin said Umno’s long-standing image as defender of religion, race, and homeland once helped retain Malay support, but that alone is no longer enough.

He said younger voters are driven just as much by jobs, living costs, and economic security.

“PN gained substantial traction among the younger voters not merely because of identity politics, but because they successfully packaged their messaging in a more aggressive, emotionally persuasive, and digitally effective manner,” he said.

“Therefore, Umno Youth should not merely imitate older narratives, but instead rebuild a fresher political narrative that speaks directly to the aspirations and frustrations of contemporary Malay youth.”