Laluan untuk Zahid jadi PM bukannya mudah

LALUAN Ahmad Zahid Hamidi untuk menjadi perdana menteri tidak semudah digambarkan walaupun Khairy Jamaluddin mendakwa peluang presiden Umno itu semakin cerah dalam landskap politik semasa.

Dalam podcast Keluar Sekejap, Sabtu lalu, Khairy berkata peluang Zahid berubah daripada ‘hampir mustahil kepada agak besar’, susulan konflik dalaman berterusan parti lain serta kedudukan Umno yang dilihat lebih stabil.

Namun, penganalisis politik berpandangan peluang itu masih bergantung kepada faktor utama — jumlah kerusi yang mampu dimenangi Umno pada PRU akan datang.

Mazlan Ali dari Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) berkata, kenyataan Khairy dibuat dalam konteks krisis dalaman parti lain, termasuk Bersatu dan Perikatan Nasional (PN), selain ketegangan dalam kerajaan perpaduan.

“Saya menyifatkan kenyataan Khairy berdasarkan situasi semasa…berlaku masalah dalam Bersatu dan di pihak kerajaan pula Anwar (Ibrahim) menerima kritikan,” katanya kepada FMT.

Bagaimanapun, beliau menegaskan Zahid hanya berpeluang jika Umno mencatat lonjakan besar kerusi Parlimen.

“Bukan saya kata Zahid tidak ada peluang, tetapi jika Umno dapat 40 kerusi dan menjadi parti paling dominan dalam gabungan, barulah kemungkinan besar Zahid boleh diangkat menjadi perdana menteri,” katanya.

Katanya, jika keputusan PRU16 sekadar mengulangi prestasi pilihan raya lalu, sukar untuk parti lain mengangkat Zahid sebagai ketua kerajaan, terutama jika Pakatan Harapan (PH) kekal sebagai blok terbesar.

Umno kini memiliki 26 kerusi Parlimen selepas PRU15.

Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk dari Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) pula berkata, secara realiti politik Zahid memerlukan sokongan majoriti ahli Dewan Rakyat, sesuatu yang sukar dicapai memandangkan Umno bukan lagi parti dominan.

Katanya, ketika ini PAS kekal sebagai satu-satunya parti majoriti Melayu Islam yang stabil, manakala Umno masih berdepan isu persepsi negatif dalam kalangan pengundi.

“Umno berdepan isu persepsi negatif pengundi yang masih sukar untuk diatasi,” katanya.

Sementara itu, Awang Azman Pawi dari Universiti Malaya (UM) berkata peluang Zahid ‘tidak mustahil’ namun bergantung kepada dinamika Parlimen tergantung dan rundingan pasca pilihan raya.

“Tanpa lonjakan besar kerusi, peluang itu masih bergantung pada rundingan politik,” katanya.

 

Tall order for Zahid to become next PM

ANALYSTS have played down Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s prospects of becoming the next prime minister despite former Umno’ ‘hotshot’ Khairy Jamaluddin claiming the Umno president’s prospects have brightened in the current political landscape.

The analysts said Umno will need to secure a major increase in parliamentary seats at the next general election (GE16) for Zahid to realistically have a shot at the top post.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said Khairy’s remarks were made in the context of crises within other parties, including Bersatu and Perikatan Nasional, as well as tensions within the unity government with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim facing criticism.

Nevertheless, he said Zahid would only stand a chance if Umno had a massive surge in seats and regained its standing as one of the dominant parties in the arena.

“I am not saying Zahid has no chance at all, but if Umno secures 40 seats and becomes the most dominant party in the coalition, only then will Zahid have a higher possibility of being made prime minister,” he told FMT.

If GE16 were to lead to the same results as the 2022 polls, Mazlan said it would be difficult for other parties to back Zahid for the top post, especially if Pakatan Harapan remains the largest bloc.

Umno currently holds 26 parliamentary seats following the 15th general election in 2022.

Khairy, a former Umno Youth chief, recently said Zahid’s prospects of becoming the next prime minister were improving due to ongoing internal disputes in other parties and Umno’s perceived stability.

Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk of Universiti Sains Malaysia said Zahid would need the support of a majority of MPs in the Dewan Rakyat, something that is difficult to achieve since Umno is no longer as dominant as before.

He said PAS remained the only stable Malay-Muslim party, while Umno continued to grapple with negative voter perceptions.

Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi said it was “not impossible” for Zahid to become the next prime minister, but this depended on the dynamics of a hung Parliament and post-election negotiations.

“Without a major surge in seats, those chances will still depend on political negotiations,” he said.

 

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