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Pasca COVID-19: Tempoh Moratorium Harus Dilanjutkan, Bank Negara Perlu Turunkan OPR Kepada 0%

Tempoh Moratorium harus dilanjutkan untuk mendokong pelan pemulihan ekonomi pasca pandemik Covid-19.

Saranan saya adalah:

A) Bank-bank melanjutkan tempoh moratorium kepada peminjam.

B) Bank Negara perlu turunkan OPR kepada sekitar 0%

1. Moratorium yang sedang berlangsung merupakan satu komponen penting yang menyumbang kepada keberkesanan pakej rangsangan ekonomi Kerajaan Malaysia.

2. Moratorium telah memberikan manfaat yang sangat besar bukan sahaja kepada peminjam, malah merupakan antara polisi penting yang berjaya menyelamatkan ekonomi negara kerana ia telah mempertahankan tingkat perbelanjaan sektor domestik (isirumah dan perniagaan) daripada terus merudum. Untuk itu saya mengucapkan terima kasih kepada Kerajaan Malaysia dan bank-bank yang menjayakan polisi ini.

3. Moratorium adalah satu bentuk pakej rangsangan ekonomi tanpa kerajaan meningkatkan perbelanjaan fiskal. Ini kerana moratorium membolehkan peminjam yang terdiri daripada rakyat awam dan perniagaan, terutamanya SME dapat meningkatkan perbelanjaan mereka dalam ekonomi tanpa kerajaan perlu mengeluarkan belanja.

4. Moratorium yang diluluskan adalah berjumlah lebih kurang RM 40 billion.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/…/moratorium-worth-rm40-bil-…

5. Ini bermakna seandainya moratorium tidak diberikan oleh kerajaan, perbelanjaan domestik dalam ekonomi negara akan berkurang sebanyak RM40 billion kerana wang yang digunakan untuk membayar balik pinjaman bank adalah merupakan bocoran wang yang terkeluar dari kitaran ekonomi.

6. Sekiranya peminjam perlu membayar pinjaman ketika ini, ia bukan sahaja membebankan peminjam ketika banyak sektor perniagaan dan industri terpaksa tutup akibat lockdown serta ramai pekerja dipotong gaji dan dibuang kerja, malah akan mengakibatkan agregat perbelanjaan dalam ekonomi domestik menguncup sebanyak RM40 bilion. Justeru, andai kata moratorium tidak dilaksanakan, ia hanya akan lebih merugikan sektor-sektor lain.

7. Bagi tahun 2020, Bank Negara mengunjurkan ekonomi negara bakal mencatatkan pertumbuhan negatif atau paling tinggi, dijangkakan ekonomi hanya akan tumbuh dl sekitar 0.5% sahaja.

https://www.bnm.gov.my/ar2019/files/emr2019_en_ch2.pdf

8. Berlakunya kelembapan ekonomi ketika ini adalah akibat agregat perbelanjaan mengalami penurunan, antaranya disebabkan oleh perbelanjaan isirumah yang terkesan kerana pendapatan pekerja terjejas. Selain itu, perbelanjaan pelaburan juga mengalami penurunan kerana sektor perniagaan dan korporat mengambil keputusan untuk tidak melabur kerana mereka menjangkakan kelembapan ekonomi akan berlaku.

9. Ini bermakna bukan sahaja pekerja mengurangkan perbelanjaan isirumah, malah sektor perniagaan dan korporat juga mengurangkan perbelanjaan pelaburan mereka.

10. Peningkatan perbelanjaan isirumah adalah merupakan antara komponen terpenting yang menjadi pendorong kepada pemulihan ekonomi. Oleh itu, tingkat perbelanjaan isirumah yang stabil dan tidak mengalami penurunan mendadak setelah tempoh moratorium tamat nanti bakal mewujudkan ‘business confidence’ , ini dapat mengelakkan daripada lebih banyak perniagaan gulung tikar dan dapat menyelamatkan ramai pekerja dibuang kerja.

11. Oleh itu, pada pandangan saya tempoh moratorium yang bakal tamat pada September ini wajar dilanjutkan lagi sehingga penghujung tahun ini atau suku pertama tahun 2021. Dengan tempoh moratorium dilanjutkan, maka penguncupan mendadak tingkat perbelanjaan domestik dalam ekonomi dapat dielakkan.

12. Saya amat yakin sektor perbankan dalam negara kita sangat mampu untuk terus bekerjasama dengan kerajaan bagi menjayakan polisi ini sekiranya tempoh moratorium dilanjutkan. Saya yakin perlanjutan tempoh moratorium tidak akan merugikan bank, sebaliknya ia hanya akan mengurangkan keuntungan bank sahaja. Laporan dari Bank Negara sendiri mengatakan bahawa bank-bank di negara kita berada dalam kedudukan yang kukuh dan mampu untuk bertahan sekiranya keuntungan mereka berkurang. “Banks are well-positioned to absorb the potential impact on profitability, given the prudent provisioning buffers built up over the years.” -BNM https://www.bnm.gov.my/ar2019/files/fsr2019h2_en_ch2a.pdf

13. Saya juga berharap agar Bank Negara dapat mengurangkan OPR kepada sekitar 0% sejajar dengan polisi monetari yang dilaksanakan di banyak negara lain kini. Pada pandangan saya penurunan kadar bunga kepada sekitar 0% ketika ini tidak akan mendatangkan risiko inflasi kepada negara kita, ini kerana kelembapan ekonomi telah menyebabkan banyak negara berhadapan dengan risiko deflasi, termasuklah di Malaysia. Pengurangan kadar bunga akan mengurangkan kos pinjaman bagi perniagaan, seterusnya mengurangkan kos pelaburan dan sedikit sebanyak dapat membantu pemulihan ekonomi.
https://www.nst.com.my/…/further-deflation-2020-april-cpi-m…

Ahmad Zahid Hamidi
Presiden UMNO

Post-Covid: Extend moratorium, BNM to lower OPR

The moratorium period should be extended to support the Covid-19 post-pandemic economic recovery plan. My suggestions are:
A) Banks extend the moratorium period to borrowers.
B) National Bank should lower the OPR to around 0%
1. The ongoing moratorium is an important component that contributes to the effectiveness of the Malaysian Government’s economic stimulus package.
2. The moratorium has provided enormous benefits not only to borrowers but is also one of the important policies that have succeeded in saving the country’s economy because it has maintained the level of domestic spending (household and business) from further decline. For that, I thank the Government of Malaysia and the banks that made this policy a success.
3. Moratorium is a form of economic stimulus package without government increasing fiscal spending. This is because the moratorium allows borrowers comprising the public and businesses, especially SMEs to increase their spending.
4. The approved moratorium amounts to about RM40 billion.
5. This means that if the government does not provide a moratorium, domestic spending will be reduced by RM40 billion as the money used to repay bank loans is a fray of money coming out of the economic cycle.
6. If borrowers are required to pay back their current loans, it will not only burden them but many business and industrial sectors will be forced to close due to lockdown and many workers being laid off. It will result in aggregate spending in the domestic economy contracts by RM40 billion. Therefore, if the moratorium were not implemented, it would only harm other sectors.
7. For the year 2020, Bank Negara forecasts the country’s economy will record negative growth of around 0.5%.
8. The occurrence of the current economic slowdown is due to the aggregate of expenditure declining. Among others are due to household spending, and the workers income is affected. In addition, investment spending also declined as the business and corporate sectors decided not to invest as they expected the economic slowdown to occur.
9. This means that not only do employees reduce household expenses, but the business and corporate sectors also reduce their investment expenses.
10. Increasing household spending is one of the most important components of economic recovery. Therefore, stable household spending and not a sharp decline after the moratorium period expires will create business confidence, which will prevent more business from falling behind and save many workers from being fired.
11. Therefore, in my view, the moratorium period which expires in September should be extended to the end of this year or the first quarter of 2021. With the moratorium extended, the sharp contraction of domestic spending in the economy is inevitable.
12. I am very confident that the banking sector is very capable of continuing working with the government to make this policy a success, that is an extended moratorium. I believe the extension of the moratorium will not harm the bank as it will only reduce the bank’s profitability. Reports from Bank Negara suggests that banks in our country are in a strong position to survive should profits decline. “Banks are well-positioned to absorb the potential impact on profitability, given the prudent provisioning buffers built up over the years.” -BNM https://www.bnm.gov.my/ar2019/files/fsr2019h2_en_ch2a.pdf
13. I also hope Bank Negara can reduce the OPR to around 0% in line with the monetary policy implemented in many other countries today. In my opinion, lowering the interest rate to around 0% will not bring inflation risk to our country although the economic slowdown has caused many countries to face the risk of deflation.
Reducing interest rates will reduce the cost of lending to businesses, thus lowering investment costs and to a lesser extent helping the economy recover.
AHMAD ZAHID HAMIDI
UMNO President